Developing The "Anti-Chaos" Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market (Part II)

It is horrifying to imagine what may happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market during this case. At the governable market of Forex USD rate would sink simply by 1-2%.

I hope that my opponents, UN agency deny the existence of a system dominant Forex market, do keep in mind the elementary economical laws. The spontaneous market may be a measuring system that establishes the $64000 value of products on the idea of the demand and provide (in the given case, it's the $64000 rate of exchange of any national currency).

The Episode #2 . The cyclone "Katrina" and therefore the come USA on Gregorian calendar month seven, 2005. USD rate stably will increase. Chronicle of events.

As the results of the dam (dike) debacle, many states in USA become submerged. The business, agriculture and transport network were destroyed. There started panic not solely among common inhabitants however among officers of assorted ranks similarly. a whole bunch and thousands of individuals perished. there have been cases of pillaging. several looters (and, maybe, simply urgently hungry and thirsty people) were shot by troopers of USA army. the govt of USA declared this cyclone to be a disaster on a national scale. For the primary time a brand new set up of civic defense was introduced (see "BBC. the full chronicle of events").

"Katrina" was transportation USA to ruin. Senators from LA asked $250 milliards from the federal allow obtaining over "Katrina" after-effects.

Thus, it's associate illustrative example of the best natural cataclysms in USA within the last decades. Even the poorest country within the world - Haiti - provided the money facilitate for USA ($ thirty six thousands). the assistance of Ukraine created one million of hrivnias , etc.

What did happen to USD rate at the governable Forex market? all the same all economical laws and even against the good judgment, USD rate increased!

Chart 8.7. EURO/USD try movement (For read image see notes in finish of article)

Chart 8.8. GBP/USD try movement (For read image see notes in finish of article)

Brief conclusions for traders .

As I think, the thesis that Forex has turned from the spontaneous market to the governable one doesn't would like more proofs. Hence, traders should introduce amendments into strategy and manoeuvre of their work on Forex.

What ar the conclusions, vital for traders, logically follow from these facts?

Under the new conditions of the governable market, a merchant should not follow the "crowd" (flock). As B. Williams, A. Elder and plenty of different authors have fairly emphasised, the "crowd" pushes the value at any spontaneous market. On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders should be opened earlier of Consortium's interests!

I try and notice the core of a decent sense in every technique of the successful  work on Forex . Is it necessary to discover the well-known principles? There ar several prosperous traders UN agency brazenly and honestly gift their strategies of gaining profits at Forex . If their techniques ar successful , it means these authors have a radical grasp of the matter in its essence.

However, in follow, every of the techniques typically brings profits, whereas in different cases it's harmful. And it doesn't matter, whether or not this method is developed by B. Williams or by a not celebrated however a successful  merchant.

Conclusion #1. it's necessary to obviously delineate the domains wherever a given technique will work and wherever it fails (as well because the corresponding reasons). In such some way we will clearly perceive what of the strategy by a given merchant is worth it to be used - similarly as however and once to form advantage of it for our work on Forex .

Conclusion #2 . Your commerce system should not be simply a mix (farrago) of assorted techniques. This rule is very necessary for the beginners. when reading a lot of books on Forex , all of them build complaints regarding "such a multitude in their heads rather than enlightenment".

Conclusion #3. A merchant should develop his own commerce system. so as to achieve profit, the subsequent steps should be taken:

a. you select simply any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williams's, or somebody's else);

b. you want to get wont to work with the demo account in line with this method to such extent of reaction that you simply "sense' it as your own initial (original) commerce system of the work on Forex

c. solely when this you must begin to check extra literature. you want to clearly see what pointes, "borrowed" from different authors, will assist you in person to figure at Forex , to boost your commerce system for obtaining additional profits.

Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the governable one. The pattern of this method

Any profitable business transits from the spontaneous to the governable one. it's associate objective stage within the evolution of business undertakings.

In every branch of a giant and super profitable business the initial stage of the chaotic competitive straggle is already has been responded to (petroleum, gas, ferric and non-ferrous scientific discipline, precious metals, arms traffic, etc.). at the present of these aras are positively divided between the principal participants. That is, there exist bound financially-industrial groupings, well-controllable and guarded from intrusion of a cooccurring.

The same considerations the largest and most conservative space of business - i.e., its money branch, the globe market of currency exchange enclosed. will it's otherwise? will "Chaos" rule the market wherever the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? will the largest banks and governments depend upon "Chaos" - i.e., be dependable of the "off-floor" traders - like American state and you? will these organizations be disturbed regarding the direction during which we tend to (traders) may flip the trend of all national currencies at this or that second? it's ridiculous to imagine!

To realize the ability of the grouping that has organized the "game" of Forex everywhere the globe, we should always ask the thesis from the journal "Speculator". In June, 2001 the 3 biggest dealers at Forex market - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase и Deutsche Bank - beside Reuters cluster PLC had started up the system Atriax . However, the latter failed to meet competition and stopped operations in spring, 2002. The author of the paper simply hinted that even the alliance of the three biggest world banks couldn't build any serious competition to Organizer of the "game" at Forex (to association or someone else).

In this association, however one will battle trust the principal thesis by B. Williams regarding "Trading chaos" that rules Forex? what is necessary, all strategies of this author issue from this postulate. the subsequent conclusion by B. Williams's conjointly raises doubts. He states that trends ar created by traders, whereas brokers simply notice these trends and place traders' orders. in line with B. Williams, the very fact that currently trends ar created rather "off-floor" than "on floor" (as it had been earlier) permits detection what next can happen at the market (see "Trading Chaos", Chapter 6).

So, to what extent will B. Williams's techniques be correct if their basis is primarily erroneous? allow us to enumerate the basic mistakes created in "Trading Chaos". it's necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and sensible recommendations given by B. Williams regarding the work on Forex .

1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. in line with this author, it's chaos however not associate organized system that will have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, strategies of fraud, etc.

2. B. Williams mentions the try "trader + broker". However, unconsciously or deliberately, he has omitted the third participant of this terribly method. this can be banks and therefore the world financial set-up normally. Surely, this organization won't simply take a detached read of the traders' impulsive "game" with the fundamental world currencies (USD, EURO, GBP, CHF, etc.).

Let us currently evolve B. Williams's plan by ourselves. Our aim is to demonstrate absurdity of his "chaos theory" applied to the up-to-date market of Forex.

· however brokers and banks market-makers will pay off profits from traders' deposits if the traders' total earnings would be larger than the market-maker's profit during this period?

· Being in shoes of market-makers, National Banks, governments of leading countries of the globe, etc., however can you conduct yourself on the eve of the news issue? as an example, when the publication of Michigan University Index, USD will "go up" by 150-200 points with relation to all national currencies. That is, in many hours dozens of milliards of USD are going to be decentralized . someone can earn the money, whereas someone can do thanks to the distinction in rates of exchange (quotations).

What will you are doing within the place of the largest money groupings? Would you only be sitting and taking sedative pills? Would you only be making an attempt to guess what steps are going to be taken by professors of a Michigan University? can zero.3% be added  to the index previous worth (91.4) or ablated from it? what is necessary, this "difference" makes milliards of USD - for somebody! Possessing such capitals, would you only be sitting lazily and awaiting God is aware of what? additional in all probability, you may try and build this method governable and inevitable. Rather you may do your best to achieve profit with the assistance of such indices and news. i feel you may try and let the others lose their cash.

· What will the idea of "chaos" at Forex represent by itself if Organizer of the "game" has trained all traders to act in line with the stereotype?

a). to position stop-losses and deferred orders at identical places.

b). If the issued news ar higher than the prognostication, one should stake on "buy". Otherwise (if the news ar worse than the prognostication), it's necessary to stake on "sell".

c). If a faster moving average crosses the slower one upwards, the order should be opened on "buy". within the case of the downward crossover, the order should be opened on "sell".

d). within the case of divergence, one should try and work against the trend. B. Williams and different "classics" a minimum of had to say that it had been essentially absurd to figure like this at the start of the trend and within the middle of it.

This is why the given chapter is known as "Anti-trading chaos" - to be additional precise, it's the anti-trading system.

Further i am going to not linger over absurdity of the chaos theory by B. Williams once applied to Forex . I hope it's quite clear. Any merchant will notice plenty of evidences of the very fact that Forex may be a governable market. There also are several examples that prove misconception of B. Williams's conclusion that traders type a trend and "push" it.

As i purchase it, the "game" of Forex and its rules in their essence ar the subsequent.

1. there's Organizer of the money game (the Alligator) and participants (victims).

2. Organizer forever tries to demonstrate: a). sound judgement and honesty of the foundations established by himself; b). simplicity of the analysis, certainty of the things and therefore the chance of earning cash simply and often by one in every of the many strategies of the analysis (FA, TA, etc.).

3. All participants of the "game" ar subjected to identical psychological treatment by Brokers, authors of numerical "classical" works on Forex and analysts via their sites and prognoses. That is, such specialists teach each merchant to figure as all others within the world do.

As the result, Organizer beforehand is aware of the traders' line of conduct in these or those things. the share of "players"-losers is stable - regarding ninetieth.

4. A rising within the range of dishonorable machinations developed by Brokers has become a logical continuation of the above-enumerated rules of the given game. Economists from Brokers have quickly grasped that the quantity ninetieth of traders-loses is incredibly near the figure 100%. reproval can they send clients' transactions to the foreign market (the market-maker bank)? really, traders can lose all the same! Besides, it's potential to slightly "help" traders in their losing by "knocking down" stop-losses - all traders keep their stop-losses or so at identical place. additionally, the subsequent tricks are often done as well: the "slippage" (opening of transactions at a value a lot of worse than the value at that the merchant wished to open the deal); pc "pending" at the start of the significant movement in currency pairs. One will offer several analogous examples - up to the overt  dishonorable nonpayment of earned  profits to traders.

These centers also are shielded from the perspective of finances. If in flats the sums of orders of the traders UN agency open transactions on "buy" and "sell" ar or so equal, Brokers will forever hedge the distinction between "buy" and "sell" with a market-maker below the condition of an important trend.

The only issue that cheats from Brokers ar frightened of is that the expose of strategies of their work. Really, this can place associate finish to the afflux of recent "victims"!

There ar many positive signs of a dishonorable Brokers. In my instructional course I enumerate a number of such indications. However, here I offer just one characteristic (traders ought to accept it well). If Brokers has one purpose of unfold, you must calculate expenses on the marginal trade, thoroughly delineated  altogether "classical" manuals of Forex . as an example, let it's thought that you simply open the order for one heap. Forex Brokers purportedly buys monetary unit to the total of $ a hundred thousands for you. after you shut the order, Forex Brokers purportedly transfer monetary unit to USD once more. Thus, if you open ten deals with EURO/USD try throughout on a daily basis, your Forex Brokers is meant to send cash abroad and find it back ten times, shopping for monetary unit for USD and v.v. of these transactions should be created exceptionally for you! Is it realistic?

In a next-door bank you must raise the conditions for the transfer of $100 thousands abroad and back. you may learn the price of the commission for such services and therefore the time needed for this dealing (in [*fr1] on a daily basis, future day, etc.). Here I don't mention the papers that has got to be ready for every transfer. I conjointly say nothing regarding the time needed for collection all signatures.

I wonder, throughout this era of your time what changes can occur in EURO/USD rate because the latter is neutering each second?

5. To earn frequently at Forex, you've got to master yourself. That is, a commerce theme should be developed. in line with this theme you may work against "generally accepted" rules. because it is already mentioned, these rules ar popularized by Organizer of the sport at Forex . protruding to those rules, over ninetieth of traders everywhere the globe lose their cash.

6. Developing my commerce system, I actually have created use of various generally-recognized techniques of the work on Forex (by B. Williams, etc.). Surely, there's a kernel of excellent sense in any technique that permits earning cash - notwithstanding in five hundredth of cases. Therefore, the trader's task is to differentiate the conditions, below that a given technique will give profit. it's conjointly necessary to grasp wherever, once and why this method yields a loss to the merchant. Naturally, a merchant should use solely this initial a part of the system, wherever one will gain profit.

7. For the event of your own commerce system, you want to do your best to organically integrate completely different techniques, profitable at Forex. numerous strategies of giving analysis to Forex from completely different viewpoints do facilitate U.S. to additional totally and deeply perceive this market and, consequently, to achieve profit frequently.

8. the sport of Forex is wide unfold everywhere the globe. additionally to speculators, there ar different participants in Forex - e.g., people UN agency ought to exchange currency for his or her business. of these factors give associate objective chance to achieve profits larger (and additional regularly) than in the other money game of the globe.

9. Therefore, Forex provides a true chance to urge into the primarily new money market and to become a very freelance. Anybody are often engaged in commerce at any purpose within the world. For sure, a State, very much like it'd wish it, cannot deprive a merchant of his production facilities as a result of during this space gaining of profit depends simply on one's techniques and ability.

10. Forex provides you only an opportunity to earn cash. However, not a soul will learn the way to achieve real profit. Even when having perfect the basics of creating cash at Forex , a merchant has to learn plenty of extra factors so as to rework his potential talents into real cash. during this association the subsequent aspects ar important.

a). the psychological stability (the absence of concern and hazard, the flexibility to figure mechanically at the subconscious level, etc);

b). a reliable broker (the trader's profits, being virtual, hap given that you'll convert it into real cash at any second);

c). self-perfection via mastering new techniques of gaining profit, learning from associate full-fledged pedagogue and because of exchanging opinions with different traders;

d). the chance of getting cash from the capitalist for the plus management. this offers the chance to proceed from the extent of one's own deposit of many a whole bunch or thousands of USD to the primarily new level of the work on Forex. during this manner one will at the same time reinvest a region of one's profits into the deposit and to pay cash on intensifying of one's own well-being. there's a straightforward example. At mini- Forex , several merchants don't earn plenty of money: notwithstanding a trader has doubled his deposit in a very month, his profit is tiny (e. g., by creating $100 out of $50). Besides, a region of it he should come out from the deposit for the daily wants. i am going to not offer samples of giant deposits as a result of the ways of labor with them ar primarily completely different - similarly because the proportion of profit.

11. not a soul will cowl a distance from the prospect (the dream) to its realization - i.e., to creating real cash at Forex . As a merchant, here you're employed against Organizer of this game, UN agency is that the skilled. That is, to earn cash frequently by taking it aloof from Organizer, one should become the skilled himself. don't hurry to open a true account a minimum of until the time after you can learn to try and do the following:

a). As B. Williams himself, in many minutes to obviously see 2 potential alternatives of currency try movement at the start of every session. Correspondingly, you want to develop 2 business plans, wherever points of input into the market and output from it should be clearly selected.

b). to figure out one's own manoeuvre of the work with the demo account at Forex to a T. The aim is to reinforce the demo account a minimum of a pair of.5-3 times in a very month.

c). To develop the long-run and intermediate ways (not but a month and per week, respectively) - similarly because the short-run manoeuvre (the intra-day commerce session). Acquisition of this information can assist you to achieve profit.

d). when gap of the $64000 account, at the start you want to work solely with trends (under the conditions of flats you want to upset demo accounts). it's necessary to obviously distinguish one from another at the start of commerce.

e). you want to select 2 ally currency pairs and work with them unendingly, accumulating expertise.

12. There are often reasons why your demo account doesn't augment frequently (in explicit, perhaps you're too busy at your main job). during this case, you higher ditch Forex ! you want to not open a true account there. It means Forex isn't meant for you.

By the way, there's utterly nothing humbling within the inability to form cash at Forex . Some folks don't perceive technology, or literature. Others don't return to grasp fine arts, politics or sports, etc. will anybody contemplate oneself inferior thanks to this reason? for sure, not at all!

Analogously, I dead well notice that the reaction to the last 2 things of my vision of the sport at Forex are often inadequate. it'll stimulate an instantaneous tide of slander and lies regarding American state and my book. the explanation is that i am not associate worker of BROKER however a merchant. I try and perceive recent rules of the sport at Forex, its mechanisms and to clarify them to others.

Note:

Full text of this text and photos of examples http://www.masterforex-v.su/

If you want to be trained on commerce System Masterforex-V - one in every of new and best techniques of trade on Forex within the world visit http://www.masterforex-v.su/

Vyacheslav Vasilevich (Masterforex-V)

Professional merchant from 2000 year.

President of Masterforex-V commerce Academy.

Author of Books:

1. Trade secrets by an expert merchant or what B. Williams, A. Elder and J. Schwager not told regarding Forex to traders.

2. Technical analyses in commerce System MasterForex-V.

3. Entry and Exit Points at Forex Market


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